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Prediction vs market

Every call, checked against the proxy's real price at its horizon. Hit = right direction and at least the low end of the range; partial = right direction, short of it; miss = wrong direction or flat.

PERIOD

Today7 days30 days90 days

CALLS SCORED

220

HIT

50%

111 of 220

DIRECTION RIGHT

67%

194 calls where the market moved · 26 flat left out

INSIDE RANGE

19%

move landed in the band

By horizon

HORIZON	N	HIT	DIR	RANGE
24 h	104	46%	68%	16%
4 h	96	57%	65%	20%
3 days	20	40%	71%	30%

By speaker type

SPEAKER	N	HIT	DIR	RANGE
companies	90	73%	78%	14%
leaders	58	29%	53%	22%
central-banks	56	34%	59%	20%
finance-ministers	8	38%	67%	13%
institutions	4	100%	100%	75%

By market

MARKET	N	HIT	DIR	RANGE
Tech & semis · SOXX	46	72%	72%	9%
Energy · XLE	30	33%	60%	23%
Industrials · XLI	18	72%	100%	11%
Financials · XLF	14	50%	85%	0%
Defense · ITA	14	21%	46%	14%

One question, answered with numbers

When someone powerful speaks, Meantly predicts how a market will move. This page checks every one of those predictions against what the market actually did.

0:00 / 0:00

Quick reference

Calls scoredPredictions whose time horizon has passed, so the real price could be checked.

HitRight direction, and the move reached at least the low end of the predicted range.

Direction rightOnly the sign counts (up or down). Calls where the market stayed flat are left out.

Inside rangeThe move landed inside the predicted band, not short of it and not past it.

HorizonHow far ahead the call looked: 4 hours, 24 hours or 3 days.

ProxyThe ETF used to measure a market, such as SOXX for chips or ITA for defense.